The Institute of Regional Studies convened a roundtable in Islamabad to assess the precarious state of US Iran talks and the wider regional fallout. Ambassador Jauhar Saleem, president of the institute, said dire economic conditions inside Iran have made governance more difficult and argued that external actors were seeking to exploit popular grievances. He described recent hardline public statements from Washington as a pressure tactic intended to bring Tehran to the negotiating table.
Rear Admiral (R) Faisal Ali Shah warned against viewing Iran solely through a Western lens, noting that many institutions are deeply embedded in everyday governance. He said the protests have largely targeted specific policies rather than aiming for wholesale regime change, and that many citizens prioritise stability and security over disruptive external intervention. According to the analyst, those dynamics help explain why external shocks have not produced a broader uprising and why calls for foreign intervention are strategically unrealistic.
Muhammad Hussain Baqeri observed that Iranian society is undergoing a transitional period driven by shifting political and social forces. He argued that without comprehensive security and governance strategies, long-term social stability will remain fragile even if short-term unrest is contained.
Alireza Nader from Washington DC said the Iranian diaspora is pressing the US to take decisive action, but he cautioned that any military move carries a high risk of escalation into a wider regional conflict. While he acknowledged a limited space for diplomacy, he judged that major concessions from either side are unlikely, leaving the US Iran talks in a tenuous position.
Jawed Rana, editor of The Counter Narrative, reinforced the view that Iranian institutions retain resilience despite economic strain and have so far managed to absorb political and economic pressures. He suggested that external actors such as the US and Israel may view internal instability as an opportunity, but that a large-scale war remains unlikely. He added that failing negotiations could nevertheless increase the likelihood of a limited strike.
Speakers at the Islamabad event stressed that the outcome of US Iran talks is difficult to predict and that policymakers in Pakistan and the region must prepare for multiple scenarios. The roundtable highlighted the need for careful diplomatic engagement to reduce escalation risks and to protect regional security interests, noting that instability in Iran would have direct geopolitical consequences for neighbouring states.
Overall, the consensus among participants was one of caution: while diplomacy is not impossible, the room for negotiated solutions is constrained, and the potential for localized military action cannot be discounted if talks collapse. Observers were urged to avoid simplistic readings of protests and to recognise the complex institutional and social factors shaping Iran’s responses to external pressure.
